In my last blog I analysed the goal scoring trends in the ‘A’ League after 9 games of the season and after five more matches the season is at the halfway stage, so I have made similar comparisons to see which team has the best chance of winning the league, according to the key performance indicators. If you want to read the previous blog, click on the link.
Goals in Open Play and from Set Plays
After 9 games only Melbourne Victory (MVT) Wellington and Adelaide had scored more than 10 goals in Open Play, which had them in the frame for the title if they can maintain the same rate of scoring. Perth had only scored 6 goals in Open Play despite being top of the table, but had the highest number of goals (9) from Set Plays. To be in the frame at the halfway stage teams need to have scored around 20 goals with a target of between 40-50 by the end of the season if the totals by winners over the last 5 years are used as a guide.
At the halfway stage Melbourne City (MCT) have joined the group with 20+ goals but like Perth they have a high percentage of goals from Set Plays. After 9 games Perth had the highest number of goals from Set Plays (60%) followed by MCT (58%). From the 9th to the 14th round Perth scored 9 goals in Open Play and 1 goal from a Set Play, which reduced their Set Play total to 40%, while MCT are the highest of the teams with 20+ at 45%, down from 58%. Realistically MCT do not have enough points to overtake the other four teams so they cannot be serious contenders to win the league.
In past seasons the successful teams have scored less than 33% from Set Plays. A lower percentage is an indicator of the team’s superior ability to score in Open Play. Of the five teams to have scored 20+ goals after 14 rounds, Adelaide (18%) and Wellington (21%) have the lowest percentage of goals from Set Plays and on that basis would be in the frame to win the league if they can maintain their current scoring rate. Perth and MVT are not much above the 33% mark from Set Plays, 40% and 36% respectively, so it will not take too many goals in Open Play to reduce their percentage further.
Goals from 5 passes or less in Open Play
At the halfway stage the league average for goals from 5 passes or less in Open Play is 74%, which is exactly the same as after 9 rounds. Comparing the top teams from round 9 to round 14, Perth have dropped from 83% to 73%, with 11 out of 15 goals, MVT have dropped from 79% to 67%, with 12 out of 18 goals, Adelaide have increased from 55% to 72%, with 13 out of 18 goals, while Wellington have increased from 86% to 91%, with 20 out of 22 goals from 5 passes or less.
Goals from regained possessions in different areas of the field.
The top teams have consistently scored more goals from regained possessions in the middle third. Perth scored 40%, MVT 56%, Wellington 55% and Adelaide 50% from regained possession in the middle third. Goals from regained possession in the back third have Perth and Wellington at 27%, MVT at 33% and Adelaide at 39%. The average for goals from regained possessions in the back third for all teams after 14 games is 34% so Adelaide is the only team above the league average. The average for the 2009-10 season was 29% and in 2011-12 it was 25%. Based on these figures one has to ask why teams pay so much emphasis on playing out from the back, but that is another story. The league average after 14 games for goals from regained possessions in the final third in Open Play was 22%. The average in 2009-10 was 30% and 26% in 2011-12. However after 14 games Adelaide and MVT have only scored 2 goals each from regained possession in the final third, which is just 11% of their total in Open Play. This supports my earlier comment that teams which press high do not always win the ball in that area of the field because opposing players do not want to be caught in possession close to their own goal so they often play long when under pressure. After 14 games Perth were at 33%, with 5 out of 15 goals from regained possession in the final third and Wellington were at 23% with 5 out of 22.
Observations
Based on the performance indicators of total goals and the difference between Open Play and Set Plays, Wellington and Adelaide would be slight favourites to win the league. However, Perth have reduced their Set Play percentage from 60% after 9 games to 40% after 14 games so they are on track to reduce that further if they continue to score more goals in Open Play. MVT at 36% from Set Plays are a slightly better prospect after 14 games to finish below 30% by the end of the season.
There does not appear to be any advantage in terms of where teams regain possession of the ball but changes in the percentage of goals from 5 passes or less is interesting. Perth have dropped from 83% after 9 games to 73% after 14 games and in the process have scored 9 goals in Open Play, which is actually a good indicator because after scoring 6 in the first 9 games, it suggests they are getting better at scoring from longer passing sequences and playing through defences. If this trend continues in the second half of the season it will be very interesting to see how they compare with the other teams after 18 games. Wellington have increased their goals from 5 passes or less between round 9 and round 14, from 86% to 91% and continue to score regularly, while keeping a low of 21% from Set Plays. Wellington’s higher number of goals in Open Play would just keep them ahead of Adelaide as favourites to win the league after 14 rounds, despite Adelaide increasing their goals from 5 passes or less from 55% to 72%. The league average for goals from 5 passes or less after 14 games was 74%. In 2009-10 it was 87% and 75% in 2011-12. I will review the scoring patterns after 18 games to see if the race for the title is just as close as it was at the halfway stage of the season.