What analysis can tell us about goal scoring in the ‘A’ League.
I think it is interesting to look at what’s happening in the current ‘A’ league season to see if there are similarities among the top teams and to make comparisons with a sample from past seasons.
Goals from Set Plays
After the first nine rounds of the ‘A’ League there are some interesting trends based on the evidence available. At the top of the league Perth Glory had scored 15 goals, with 9 coming from Set Plays, which is unusually high and represents 60% of the total. The average for all teams was 36%, which is slightly higher compared with the season averages for 2009/10 and 2011/12, which were 29% and 28% respectively.
In 2011-12 Central Coast Mariners (CCM) scored 9 out of 40 from Set Plays (22%) and Brisbane scored 11 out of 50 (22%). The percentage figures are lower than the league average for the season (28%) but only because both teams scored more goals in Open Play than the other teams. Interestingly Perth Glory scored 15 out of 40 from Set Plays (38%) that year.
Goals in Open Play
After 9 rounds Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory (MVT) had scored 14 goals and were the highest in the league, followed by Adelaide on 11, the only teams to reach double figures. If they can maintain that consistency and finish with 40+ goals in Open Play one of them will surely win the league. In the 2011-12 season Brisbane scored 39 goals in Open Play, Central Coast Mariners scored 31 and between them won the Premiers Plate and the Grand Final.
Where possession was regained on the field.
After 9 rounds Perth had scored 1 out of 6 from regained possession in their own half (17%) while MVT had scored 8 out of 14 (57%), Adelaide had scored 5 out of 11 (45%) and Wellington with 9 out of 14 had scored 64%. The interesting thing is that when teams press high to win the ball back, they don’t often succeed but force opponents to play the ball long rather than being caught in possession near goal, so the figures for regained possessions in a team’s own half are not really surprising. Another fact is that few teams can press high for the duration of the game due to the energy expenditure so they have to drop off to some degree during the course of the game.
In 2011-12 Brisbane, a team renowned for pressing high and quickly, scored 23 out of 39 (59%) from regained possession in their own half, while CCM scored 15 out of 31 (48%) to become Premiers. The league average in 2011-12 was 47%. After 9 rounds this season the league average for goals from regained possession in the teams’ own half was 53%. Another interesting statistic is that Newcastle had scored 6 out of 6 (100%) from regained possession in their own half and were close to bottom, while Perth had scored 1 out of 6 (17%) and were top of the league.
So based on past performances and the percentage of goals scored in Open Play and from Set Plays, MVT or Wellington appear to be the most likely to win the league if they can maintain the current form and the challenge for Perth is to continue scoring a higher percentage of goals from Set Plays or to improve the number of goals they score in Open Play, while still winning matches.
The number of passes prior to a goal scored
Regardless of where possession is regained the number of goals scored from passing moves of 5 or less is much higher than passing moves of 6 or more. After 9 rounds this season the number of goals scored in Open Play from 5 passes or less was 58 out of 78 (74%) with 20 goals from 6 passes or more, which is similar to past seasons. I think it is sensible to exclude goals scored from Set Plays because generally they are always scored with less than 5 passes. In 2009-10 the number of goals in Open Play was 216 out of 247 (87%) and in 2011-12 it was 198 out of 263 (75%). The trend is for teams to score more goals with passing moves of 6 or more but the difference between the number scored with 5 passes or less is still considerable.
In 2011-12 CCM scored 25 out of 31 goals (81%) from moves of 5 passes or less in Open Play, MVT scored 22 out of 25 (88%), Perth scored 20 out of 25 (80%) but Brisbane scored 18 out of 39 (46%), which was much lower than usual meaning they bucked the trend by scoring 21 out of 39 (54%) with 6 passes or more.
After 9 rounds this season Perth had scored 5 out of 6 goals (83%) from 5 passes or less in Open Play and from regaining possession in the opponents half of the field, MVT had scored 11 out of 14 (79%), Wellington had scored 12 out of 14 (86%), while Adelaide had scored 6 out of 11 (55%).
Summary
The message is quite clear. Regardless of where possession is regained the slower teams are to attack their opponents or the longer the team has possession of the ball, the less likely they are to score goals because to be successful with that strategy the team must be very good at breaking through a packed defence. When teams have had success with that strategy it is hard to change the mentality even when results are not forthcoming.
The challenge for coaches is how to implement strategic thinking with the players at their disposal and the differences in the way the teams have scored their goals in the ‘A’ League exemplify that. Two defensive strategies that are applied consistently in Open Play are to press high and immediately to win the ball in the opponents half or drop off to defend deep and attack with speed after regaining possession in your own half. Attacking strategies include a slow build up to control possession of the ball, a quick transition a soon as possession is regained and a combination of both depending on the circumstances. The strategies to be implemented may be influenced by the score, where possession is regained, the defensive capabailities of the opposition, the time left to play, the physical capacities of the players and or the technical abilities of the players among other things.
It will be interesting to monitor the progress of the teams as each round progresses, which I will do at the halfway stage and after eighteen rounds.