I would like to congratulate the top five teams who were challenging for the title from early on in the season and especially to Melbourne Victory the eventual winners. There were many memorable moments during the season we should savour.
Points on the Board
At the end of Round 18 I suggested that if the top 5 teams in the A League won the same number of points as they did between Round 9 and 18, Melbourne Victory (MVT) would win the league with 51points, Perth would come 2nd with 48 points and Adelaide would come 3rd with 46. Adelaide was the only team to get the same number of points, while the other 4 teams got more than in the previous 9 Rounds with Sydney recording 21 out of a maximum 27 points, 8 more than in the previous 9 Rounds, to finish in 2nd spot. A tremendous effort by coach Graham Arnold and his staff.
Set Plays & Open Play
After 9 Rounds Perth had scored 60% of their goals from Set Plays, which was extremely high and unlikely to win the league unless the percentage dropped considerably. By the end of the season MCT had the highest in the top 6 with 39%, Perth were on 33%, Sydney on 31% and Adelaide the lowest with 19%. So the teams with the highest percentage of goals in Open Play were Adelaide with 81%, Wellington 76% and MVT with 73% while MCT were the lowest at 61%.
Sydney scored 16, the highest number from Set Plays followed by Perth and MVT on 15, MCT on 14, Wellington on 11 and Adelaide the lowest on 9. How did they score them you might ask? Sydney scored 8 from penalties, 7 from corners and 1 from a free kick. Adelaide had the lowest total and scored 6 of the 9 from penalties, which means 3 goals all season from free kicks and corners. Perth were the most effective out of the top 6, if penalties are taken out because they scored 12 goals, 7 from corners and 5 free kicks, closely followed by MVT on 10 goals, with 5 corners and 5 free kicks and MCT with 7 corners and 3 free kicks. Wellington scored 1 from corners and 5 from free kicks. Having broken the numbers down they do not look impressive but they do account for 25-30% of goals over the season.
Regained Possession
Analysis of possession has revealed some interesting and maybe surprising facts. For example, 4 of the top 5 teams scored the majority of goals from regained possession in the middle third, with Perth recording the highest from the defending third when the numbers were expressed as percentages. Actually, Perth scored 12 goals from regained possession in the back third, which was the highest at 40%, followed by Sydney.
Three of the top six teams scored the majority of goals from regained possessions in the their own half, with MVT the highest at 61% while Sydney recorded 64%, the exact opposite from regained possessions in the opponent’s half. The teams that scored the most goals from regained possession in the final third were Wellington, Sydney and Melbourne City (MCT) all in excess of 30% while MVT recorded the lowest with 7%, followed by Adelaide 21% and Perth on 27%. Some interesting differences there for you to consider.
When the number of passes are considered for goals in Open Play, Wellington and MCT scored the highest number of goals from 5 passes or less with 91% and 86% respectively and both teams, along with Sydney regained more possession in the final third than the other teams in the top 6. Sydney and Wellington scored the most goals without making a pass in Open Play; Sydney scored 9 and Wellington scored 5 while none of the other 4 teams scored more than 1 goal, Perth didn’t score any.
The teams that scored the highest number from 6 or more passes were Sydney and Adelaide with 33% and 32% respectively, with MCT and Wellington the lowest at 18% and 9% respectively.
Considering that all the teams played a possession based style of football there are some amazing differences in the goal scoring patterns but the overriding message is the speed of transition regardless of where the team regains possession. Perth for example scored 40% from regained possession in the back third and 9 of the goals were scored with less than 5 passes in the back third. What about long balls you might ask? Well, 3 were a result of a long ball including one from the goalkeeper, but 6 were from playing the ball quickly on the ground and running with it, they scored 3 goals from 6 or more passes from the back third. Sydney scored 33% from 6 or more passes, 42% from 1-5 passes and 25% without making a pass. I would mention here that none of those were after saves by the goalkeeper or rebounds off the posts, zero pass goals were typically by winning the ball from a clearance, or off a defender or intercepting a back pass etc.
So what should we make of the analysis? Firstly there is not one way of playing football that is quite clear. All teams try to keep the ball because that is the nature of the game even if the statistics prove you will not score many goals with long passing sequences. Every week thousands of people buy a lottery ticket in the hope they might win a million dollars, knowing they most likely will not win but somebody will. I think football is a bit like that, we might try to score every time we get the ball but in the knowledge it will not happen that often. Having said that, there are many good reasons for keeping possession, for example, getting closer to the opponents goal, because you will not score many goals unless you can get the ball and players within 20 metres of the goal. 249 of the 286 goals in Open Play were scored inside the penalty area that is 87%, with a further 23, 8% from inside 20 metres, making a total of 272 from 286, that is 95%.
It used to amuse me while I was on the coaching staff at Brisbane last year when we were finding it difficult to score goals but keeping the ball in the opponent’s half of the field, disgruntled fans would send tweets to tell me that possession alone was not the answer, we had to score goals, as if I had not worked that out for myself.
Crosses
This aspect of the game interests me enormously because for some people a cross can come from anywhere on the field as long as the ball goes in the air. I have a different interpretation; a cross originates outside the penalty area and within 18 metres of the goal line, so in my analysis fewer goals come from crosses but at least I know what I am describing. In the league last year MVT scored 2 goals from crosses out of 41 goals in Open Play, 5%. Adelaide and Sydney scored the most with 7 each and Perth scored 5 from crosses. In 2008-09 when MVT won the league they scored 1 goal from a cross all season.
Conclusion
This is my last blog about goal scoring in the A League for this season. The other articles are on my website, http://www.thefootballcentre.com.au/blog if you missed them or want to revisit.
I do not believe there is one style or method of playing football and that should be praised because if somebody discovers the secret to success it will be the end of the game in my opinion. Teams should try to play to the strengths of their players because as this limited analysis has shown, goals are scored in a variety of ways and with less rather than more passes, like it or not. That is the case all over the world not just in Australia. How many goals are the result of planning and how many happen by accident is something else to be considered. Performance analysis can highlight aspects of successful play that others might benefit from and provide a Plan B for the times when Plan A is not working. I hope this brief look at the A League goals in 2014-15 will inspire some of the readers to analyse their own team’s performance more closely, get more enjoyment from their coaching and ultimately better results on the field.